Bears can't be overlooked -- in fantasy football

Training camp is the wrong time to scout for your Fantasy League team. This is the time of year when the Bears are throwing to Greg Olsen, Devin Hester is catching everything in sight, Jay Cutler is throwing a touchdown pass to Matt Forte once a day in seven-on-seven drills. And Robbie Gould is booming 53-yard field goals. Everybody everywhere looks good. Even the new-look Lions appear ready to shift into overdrive. Yeah, right. 

But with that said, the Bears are an intriguing team for fantasy players this year. On paper, there's not a lot to like. Our intimate knowledge accentuates their flaws over their capabilities: Jay Cutler throws too many interceptions; Matt Forte has a second gear but not a first; Devin Hester doesn't have the instincts to be a receiver; Greg Olsen can't take a hit; Devin Aromashodu had his moments last year, but who the hell is Devin Aromashodu? 

And nationally, of course, the Bears are getting little respect in fantasy previews. In ESPN's rankings, there are no Bears in the top 40, only three in the top 100. Forte is No. 43, Cutler is No. 77 and Johnny Knox is No. 106. Hester is No. 168. The Bears' defense is No. 307. Desmond Clark is No. 435, not too far ahead of Caleb Hanie (No. 472). 

It appears that the Bears are so lowly regarded, people think even Mike Martz can't help them. But that could be a mistake. While Martz hasn't been the magician he appeared to be in  St. Louis, where he took an offense that ranked 24th in points and 27th in yards in 1998 and finished first in both categories in 1999, he's still worth a boost for the worst of teams.

The 2006 Lions made modest improvements in points (28th to 21st) and yards (27th to 22nd) in Martz's first season, but jumped from 26th in passing yards to seventh. Roy Williams went from 45 catches for 687 yards in 2005 to 82-1,310 with 7 TDs under Martz. Mike Furrey went from zero catches and zero yards in 2005 to 98 catches, 1,086 yards and six TDs under Martz. Everybody knew Roy Williams, but who the hell was Mike Furrey before Martz got a hold of him. 

The 2008 49ers improved from 32nd (and last) in points, yards and passing yards to 22nd, 23rd and 13th. With Shaun Hill and J.T. O'Sullivan at quarterback. Hill threw for 13 touchdowns and 2,046 yards in nine games. And Jay Cutler isn't going to improve? I'm a cynic, but not that much of a cynic. 

The biggest issue with drafting Bears players could be determining who will score the fantasy points in this offense. Martz's offense spreads the ball around. It's hard to tell if Aromashodu, Hester, Knox or Earl Bennett will emerge as the most productive receiver. Will the Bears throw to the tight ends as much as they are in training camp? And how many carries will Chester Taylor take from Forte, especially near the goal line? 

Still, the Bears are low-risk/high-reward picks in fantasy this year. It's not like you're going to have to take Cutler or Forte early. Just don't forget about them. Here's a look at the top 10 Bears players for fantasy football this season: 

1. Jay Cutler, QB -- Some leagues value QBs more than others, but Cutler is the surest thing the Bears have. Even considering the distortion of training camp, the Bears' red-zone offense looks good. 

2. Matt Forte, RB -- His biggest impact likely will be in the passing game, and not just on dump-offs over the middle. 

3. Devin Hester, WR -- If he were wearing another team's uniform at another training camp, we'd all be raving about what a great year he'll have in Martz's offense. 

4. Johnny Knox, WR -- With an offense that creates so much conflict-of-assignment, the deep guy always has a chance to shine.

5. Devin Aromashodu, WR -- He was good even in Ron Turner's offense last year, though it was a limited sample. 

6. Chester Taylor, RB -- Could end up being the Bears' best running threat, especially near the goal line.

7. Robbie Gould, PK -- Dependable kicker should get a lot of opportunities to score this year. 

8. Bears defense -- The later the better, but you can't overlook the potential chain-reaction impact of Julius Peppers and the reportedly rejuvenated Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris. 

9. Desmond Clark, TE -- It would be nice if you could draft an entry of Clark and Greg Olsen, but once the season starts, the better blocker figures to get more time on the field. 

10. Greg Olsen, TE -- For what it's worth, he's catching a lot of passes in training camp. 

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No room for dissent on Sox

White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper was so annoyed at my line of questioning Tuesday that he started sounding like Lovie Smith.

How confident are you in the back end of your rotation with two months to go?

"I'm confident in everybody," Coop said. "I'm always confident. I always believe we're going to get it done."

Is is a legitimate concern to wonder how much gas Freddy Garcia has in the tank?

"It would be for anybody in baseball. Can they close out? No matter what team you're on, that's a question for anybody."

Ozzie says it's important to keep Garcia fresh down the stretch.

"We do that with everyone."

On paper, Garcia is most effective when his pitch-counts are down.

"Anybody who has a lower pitch count usually pitches pretty good, all right? I mean, if you throw a low pitch count, you're usually doing pretty well." 

So giving up five runs in less than two innings is nothing to get anxious about?

"That's the media's concern. It's usually not the good things. We're not talking about the good stuff right here. We're talking about, "Can Freddy last? Is he out of gas? You're more concerned with the negatives."

Aren't you ever concerned about one of your pitchers?

"I'm always concerned about everybody every day. But I don't take the approach that they're crashing. I take the approach that they're going to get it right." 

Let the record show that the only person who said anything about anybody crashing is Don Cooper. Clearly, he was in no mood to engage in a healthy discourse on Garcia and Daniel Hudson and the importance of the fourth and fifth starters in the final two months of a pennant race.

Ozzie Guillen, on the other hand, not only was willing to engage in the debate, but he made good points. "What team has a legitimate fifth starter?" he asked. "Like where you say, "Wow. This guy's out there, we're going to win today!"

"The Red Sox? They're in third place. Nobody in baseball has a fifth starter. I think this kid [Hudson] will come up after the bad game on Sunday. And we've got four good ones. Yes, we can make it." 

Cooper doesn't suffer cynics so gladly. He has too many pitchers throwing well to dwell on -- at least publicly -- what could go wrong. And he's got a point. His pitching staff is one of the best in the American League -- fourth in ERA (3.92), third in strikeouts-to-walks (2.34-1). Sox pitchers have allowed the fewest home runs in the AL (74) -- pretty good for a team that plays in a park where the ball carries. In fact, Sox pitchers have allowed 38 homers at U.S. Cellular Field, while Sox hitters have hit 72 homers. The differential of plus-34 is the second best in the AL (behind Toronto's plus-42). The league average is plus 2.8. 

So while I'm not backing down from concerns about the back end of the rotation, the White Sox have much more going for them right now. Here's a look at the brightest of the bright spots: 

1. Gavin Floyd -- The hottest of the Sox's hot starters. After pitching seven scoreless innings against the Mariners on Tuesday night, Floyd (6-8, 3.66) is 4-2 with a 1.04 ERA in his last 10 starts, with a batting-average-against of .202. 

2. John Danks -- The left-hander is 7-2, with a 2.83 ERA in his last nine starts, with a batting-average-against of .186. Danks (11-7, 3.23) has allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his 20 starts, three or fewer in 16 of 20. 

3. Ozzie Guillen -- The week of the trading deadline is a good example of Guillen's impact on the team and why this team in particular wins because of him. He stands up for his guys and absorbs the distraction of trade-talk at the same time. More importantly, he has a keen awareness of the importance of keeping his pitchers fresh down the stretch.

4. Alexei Ramirez -- After going 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in the Sox's 11-0 victory over the Mariners on Tuesday night, Ramirez is hitting .367 (40-for-109) in his last 29 games to improve his batting average from .254 to .288. And the hotter he gets at the plate, the better he has played in the field. 

5. Mark Buehrle -- In early June, Buehrle was 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA. But in his last eight starts, he's etch6-2 with a 2.20 ERA to improve to 9-8, 3.96 overall. 

6. J.J. Putz -- Part of the hottest lefty-righty set-up combination in the league. In his last 26 appearances, Putz is 5-0 with a 0.00 ERA, setting a team record for consecutive scoreless appearances. That can be deceiving for a relief pitcher. But in that span Putz has allowed only one of 10 inherited runners to score.

7. Matt Thornton -- The All-Star left-hander has a scoreless streak of his own -- he hasn't allowed a run in 13 1/3 innings over his last 16 appearances. He's allowed three of 10 inherited runners to score in that span. 

8. Gordon Beckham -- He had two doubles and two RBI against the Mariners on Tuesday night to break an 0-for- skein. In his last 25 games, Beckham is hitting .345 (30-for-87) with three homers and 13 RBI to raise his average from .199 on June 25 to .239.

9. Paul Konerko -- A steadying force in the clubhouse and on the field, Konerko is hitting .297 with 23 home runs and 69 RBI. After hitting one home run in a 22-game stretch through Sunday, Konerko has homered in his last two games. 

10. Omar Vizquel -- Since replacing the injured Mark Teahen at third base, Vizquel not only has given the team an upgrade defensively that appears to have affected the entire infield, but he's hitting .302 (37-for-123) -- pretty good for a 43-year-old who hit .246 in his last full season in 2007.

Deal or No Deal?

You don't have to read between the lines too much to know that White Sox general manager Kenny Williams would LOVE to make a deal for a left-handed bat this week. He's just not going to trade an established starting player to do it. 

The best guess is that Williams is waiting for the price to come down to his level, which is minor-league prospects. One of Williams' strengths as a GM is that he likes his players, but doesn't fall in love with them. Top prospects in the Sox farm system, no matter how highly rated they are, can fall out of favor quickly under Williams. Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Aaron Poreda and Lance Broadway all seemed close to untouchable until Williams got a closer look, and then they were gone. Catcher Tyler Flowers, the heir-apparent to A.J. Pierzynski a year ago, is hitting .220 at Class AAA Charlotte and looks like he could join that list.

After the 2008 season, Baseball America's list of Top 10 Prospects in the White Sox organization included Gordon Beckham, Poreda, Clayton Richard, Brandon Allen, Jordan Danks, Chris Getz, John Shelby, John Ely, Cole Armstrong and Eduardo Escobar. Five of the top eight on that list -- Poreda, Richard, Allen, Getz and Ely -- were gone by the beginning of this season. 

Maybe that's why Williams has had such good fortune trading prospects. He's not afraid to do it. And he's done it with minimal regret: Chris Young, traded to Arizona for Javier Vazquez in 2005, was an All-Star with the Diamondbacks this season. Jon Rauch, traded to the Expos for Carl Everett in 2004, has 20 saves for the Twins this season. Frank Francisco, traded to the Rangers for Everett in 2003, saved 25 games for Texas in 2009; Ryan Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez, traded to Oakland for Nick Swisher in 2008, are good-but-not-great players for the A's this season.

But he's avoided the bane of every GM's existence -- the bad burn. The Randy Johnson (Expos to the Mariners for Mark Langston), Ryne Sandberg (Phillies to the Cubs for Ivan de Jesus), John Smoltz (Tigers to the Braves for Doyle Alexander), Jeff Bagwell (Red Sox to the Astros for Larry Andersen) or Sammy Sosa (Rangers to the White Sox for Harold Baines).

Williams gets what he can for former No. 1 picks who don't progress as quickly as he thinks they should -- Joe Borchard for Matt Thornton; Josh Fields for Mark Teahen; Brian Anderson for Mark Kotsay; Poreda as part of the Jake Peavy deal; Lance Broadway for Ramon Castro; and Matt Ginter for Timo Perez.

But it's a pattern of success that puts Williams on the spot. "I would prefer that deals work out for both teams when we make a deal," he said Monday, prior to the Sox' game against the Mariners. "I want the other general manager to ultimately be happy with the players. I want to be happy with mine. But I want to be able to pick up the phone ... you don't last for 10 years doing this by trying to screw people over or mislead or misinformation people to death. That doesn't happen. I try to make good deals where it's beneficial to that club and beneficial to us and I can pick up the phone ... and the other guy will take the call and be more likely to engage in conversation."

That's unlikely to happen. There will always be an allure to prospects. As long as Williams knows a little bit more about his guys than everybody else, trading young players should be a good way to do business. Maybe even before the week is out. 

Here's a look at key players the Sox have acquired in deals involving prospects: 

1. Freddy Garcia -- The Sox acquired Big Game Freddy for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo and Mike Morse in 2005. Reed has hit .253 in parts of seven seasons and is back in the  Sox farm system at Charlotte. Olivo is a career .249 hitter but is hitting .307 as a part-time catcher with the Rockies this season. 

2. John Danks -- Brandon McCarthy looked like too much to give up at the time. But he's had injury problems since going to Texas. He's 13-15 with a 4.68 ERA in parts of three seasons and currently is in Class AAA. 

3. Matt Thornton -- Joe Borchard hit .217 for the Sox as a part-time outfielder in 2004. But he hit .417 in a September call-up in 2005, good enough for the Mariners to take a shot.

4. Jim Thome -- Though Aaron Rowand was the key player in this trade after the 2005 season, Gio Gonzalez was thrown in. Gonzalez is 9-6 with a 3.75 ERA for Oakland this season.

5. Carlos Quentin --  As good as Quentin has been, this deal isn't over yet. Chris Carter, 23, is at Class AAA Sacramento in the  A's farm system and on his way to a third consecutive 25-homer, 100-RBI season in the minor leagues.

6. Carl Everett -- This one could come back to haunt the Sox this season. Jon Rauch, traded to the Expos along with Gary Majewski for Everett in 2004, has 20 saves for the Twins, though he has been shaky the last two months.

7. Jake Peavy -- Acquired from the Padres for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda and right-handed pitchers Adam Russell and Dexter Carter. Richard is 7-5 with a 3.57 ERA for the NL West-leading Padres this season. Poreda and Russell are at Class AAA. Carter is in Class A. 

8. Damaso Marte -- The winning pitcher in Game 3 of the 2005 World Series. The Sox acquired him from the Pirates for Matt Guerrier, who has become an effective set-up man for the Twins. 

9. Juan Pierre -- The Sox acquired him from the Dodgers for pitchers John Ely and Jon Link. Ely had an impressive stretch in May for the Dodgers, when he was 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA. But he is 1-5 with a 7.49 ERA since then and was sent to Class AAA two week ago and replaced by Link. 

10. Geoff Blum -- Game 3 World Series hero was acquired from the Padres for pitcher Ryan Meaux in 2005. Meaux struggled in the high minors for two seasons and was out of baseball by 2008.

Now what?

Will the failure to lure LeBron James to Chicago turn into another free pass for the Bulls and John Paxson?

The chance to acquire James -- and possibly Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade with him -- seemingly created an all-or-nothing scenario for the Bulls. They'd either be big winners or big losers in the offseason. 

Instead, the way the James saga played out, the Bulls might end up right in the middle, with the worst-case scenario -- a slightly improved team just good enough to look like they're getting somewhere. Just good enough to keep the United Center full and Jerry Reinsdorf happy. Just good enough to keep us from seeing the big picture: while this is the first year of the Tom Thibodeau era, it's the seventh year of the Paxson era and the 13th year of the post-Jordan era. 

The issue isn't how good the Bulls will be this season. It's how good should we expect them to be? Since winning 49 games under Scott Skiles and advancing to the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2006-07, the Bulls' only real accomplishment has been keeping our interest. They've gone 33-49, 41-41 and 41-41 the past three seasons, but somehow they've always come up with something to convince us that they're getting somewhere:

Firing Scott Skiles created another transition period that demanded time to pay dividends; beating the draft-lottery odds to draft Derrick Rose provided them with their best player since Michael Jordan; losing valiantly to the defending World Champion (but Kevin Garnett-less) Celtics in the first round of the 2009 playoffs became an actual marketing campaign; losing in the first round of the playoffs last season was progress -- they pushed LeBron James & Co. to six games. Just wait until free agency. 

And even after losing out on James and the free agency bonanza in the offseason, it's almost like the fates have conspired to insulate the Bulls from scorn. The backlash against James since his the ill-advised "The Decision" seems to have painted the Bulls as the victim instead of the loser.

Post-decision reports -- including an inside look at James' free-agency by Yahoo.com's Adrian Wojnarowski -- portray James as a self-centered, disconnected-from-the-real-world superstar who overplayed the best hand in the world so badly that he tarnished his image forever. Good for Reinsdorf that he didn't kow-tow to James' demand for his entourage to be part of the Bulls' travel party (a report since debunked by Reinsdorf himself). And Derrick Rose is a hero for refusing to bow to the great LeBron James, neither calling him nor joining the Bulls' group that went to Cleveland to make their pitch. Suddenly Rose is being hailed as his own man. 

So even in "defeat" the Bulls will go into the 2010-11 season with their ever-faithful fans behind them -- again. I'm not saying it shouldn't be that way. They could have done a lot worse than Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer in the offseason. And a defensive-minded coach like Thibodeaux could make a big difference on a team that was not as good defensively as the numbers indicated last season. But let's not re-start the clock on the Bulls -- and Paxson -- just because of a new coach and new players. Remember, Year 13 of the post-Jordan era is about to begin. 

Ozzie Guillen called it "another game," and he better be right. If any game in July can break your season, you had no right being in contention in the first place. 

To a lot of White Sox fans, Sunday's 7-6 loss to the Twins on Sunday looked like the beginning of the end. Bobby Jenks imploded as he is wont to do -- allowing two walks and two hits without retiring a batter as the Sox blew a 6-3 lead in the ninth inning. Not only did their third consecutive loss put the brakes on their 26-5 run that put them in first place in the AL Central, but it gave the Twins the jump-start they needed after a 10-18 run that dropped them to third place in the division. And the Cubs beat Roy Halladay on top of it. Mercy. 

The Sox didn't appear any worse for the wear after the game. But it's not enough to act like it didn't hurt. If the actual pain hasn't subsided within 24 hours, you might be doomed. It sure adds intrigue to a road trip to Seattle.

Pardon my rationalization, but if you're going to lose a game like the Sox did on Sunday -- and every team does -- this was a pretty good time for it. They're on the road, where they won't have to read about or hear about the doomsday scenarios. And they're headed to Seattle -- against whom they're 3-0 this season -- to start a 13-game stretch against the Mariners and Athletics. If they haven't recovered in time for a double-header against the Tigers on Aug. 3 to start a four-game series, it's their own fault. 

(They don't have to face the recently departed Cliff Lee in Seattle, but it's questionable how much of an advantage that is. Lee is 6-6 with a 5.65 ERA in his career against the Sox. Except for his magical 22-3 Cy Young season of 2008, he's 5-6 with a 5.94 ERA.)

The Sox showed some slippage in the Twins series. Their defense failed them in two of the losses. Sergio Santos is parachuting back to earth after a hot start -- Santo had a 0.71 WHIP and .086 batting-average against in his first 12 games, but a 1.88 WHIP and .306 BAA in his last 21 appearances after allowing Delmon Young's game-winning hit on Sunday. And Paul Konerko, who had a fine series statistically (6-for-18, a home run and three RBI), struck out on two alarmingly weak at-bats in clutch situations on Friday and Saturday and was thrown out on the basepaths twice.